Macro watch: a data-heavy week for risk

Equities stay the highest-conviction bid. NDX holds its uptrend while support in the high $27k area holds, with the prior all-time high the pivot into Q4. For perp traders that means the beta backdrop for crypto is supportive, not something to fight.

Bitcoin sits at the more interesting spot: a cycle-bottom inflection. A clean break and hold above the roughly $67k to $68k area would confirm the low and open room toward $80k and beyond. Lose $60k and the constructive read is off. ETH is the higher-beta follower and needs to reclaim the $2,000 shelf.

The real risk this week is the calendar, not the charts. US CPI, PPI and retail sales all print, and USDJPY is grinding toward levels where intervention risk climbs. Expect headline-driven whips, size for the noise, and respect your levels.

None of this is a trade recommendation. It is the macro backdrop every perp position is trading inside of. Our live Market Outlook on the homepage tracks the same themes as they update.